Bede-Fazekas Á, Czúcz B, Somodi I: Vulnerability of natural landscape ... (2017)

Bede-Fazekas Ákos, Czúcz Bálint, Somodi Imelda
Vulnerability of natural landscapes to climate change – a case study of Hungary
Időjárás 121(4): pp. 393-414.
Angol nyelvű összefoglaló: 

Climate change is expected to exert considerable influence on natural ecosystems all over the world, though not all ecosystems are equally vulnerable to the changes. In this paper, an assessment framework of vulnerability of natural habitats to future climate change is presented, examining Hungary, Central Eastern Europe as a case study. A climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (CCIAV) assessment following IPCC traditions was applied, which operationalizes the concepts of exposure, sensitivity, potential impact, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability for natural ecosystems. Potential impact was quantified for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 based on regional climate models ALADIN-Climate and RegCM. Although the potential impact of future climate change was predominantly negative on the most climate sensitive forested habitat types of Hungary, for some of the grassland types we experienced positive predicted responses. Loess steppes and annual saline vegetation may thus partially benefit from climate change. The most climate vulnerable Hungarian regions are the Transdanubia (West Hungary) and the Northern Mountains (North Hungary) in terms of natural vegetation.